The Old Farmers' Almanac, going strong since 1792

How’s this winter shaping up? How cold? How snowy? Should we worry?

Vermonters love to ask those questions and propose answers.

Plenty of people make money off the answers they propose — and among them are two of the nation’s oldest continuously published periodicals, the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmer’s Almanac.

Those guides, tucked in next to the soap opera digest and the breath mints at the supermarket checkout, predict everything from the weather to fashion trends.

Local farmers say thanks, but no thanks; they rely on more conventional methods of predicting the weather.

But plenty of civilians like to quote the almanacs — and that’s been the case for generation after generation. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is 223 years old, the Farmer’s Almanac 198. Both predicted the frigid winter that plagued much of the East Coast last year.

“But don’t they always predict a snowy winter?” asked meteorologist Roger Hill, whose weather predictions and comments appear weekly in the Stowe Reporter.

There’s no secret formula for predicting the weather, no matter what the almanac and its former weather prognosticator, Abe Weatherwise, might say.

Hill said meteorologists rely on scientific data and observations, such as the rate of snow advancement in Siberia, or whether the polar vortex will be weak this winter.

“There are so many things to consider, and conditions don’t stay the same; they’re always changing,” Hill said.

He said there isn’t a person in the world who could put together a complete, accurate winter prediction before October, considering all the factors in play. The almanac concocts its forecasts months before that, and claims an 80 percent accuracy rate.

“I would love to see anyone or meet anyone who actually believes it,” Hill said.

The caterpillars

As for actual farmers, they’re not exactly waiting impatiently every year for the almanacs’ weather predictions.

Debora Wickart, co-owner of Mount Mansfield Creamery in Morrisville, said she has never even purchased either almanac and doesn’t intend to start soon.

But she did offer up a winter-forecasting method that farmers use, based on the width of a brown striped band in a woolly bear caterpillar’s brown and black coat.

The wider the band, the milder the winter, the legend goes.

The caterpillar gained weather-forecasting prominence through a nine-year experiment by Dr. C.H. Curran, curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City, starting in 1948.

The furry caterpillar starts showing up in farms and yards at about this time of year, and so far the striped band is narrow — indicating a tough winter.

And that’s in line with both almanacs, which call for a cold, wet winter.

Wickart said no matter what weather the experts, bugs or books actually predict, she and husband Stan Biasini still ready the 65-cow dairy farm for winter just as they always have and always will.

“We have to make sure we have all of the manure spread, have enough feed for the cows and clean up the barn,” she said. “We really just need to make sure we have enough room for everyone.”

Windows must be winterized and machines oiled.

“It’s all the maintenance, just like you do with your house,” she said.

Predictions? “We take it one day at a time, that’s all we can do,” she said.

Look for pine cones

Rosina Wallace of Waterbury was raised on the dairy farm her family purchased in 1866. She still maintains the family farm, with a small herd of dairy cows.

She’s been known to check woolly bear caterpillars, but “I’ve found that the woolly bears are not as predictable as they used to be,” she said.

As for the almanacs, Wallace said she used to read them, but hasn’t checked out their predictions for maybe 10 years. The almanacs have a nostalgic appeal to older generations, but “that population is dwindling; they’re not going to be around much longer,” Wallace chuckled.

“There’s just so much information available about what’s going on these days, but I do think it’s a fun institution,” she said.

Wallace said she was able to predict last winter’s brutal conditions by checking the pine trees on her property. The trees all had an abundance of pine cones at their peaks. When a tough winter is on the way, forest creatures store the pine cones far above the snow and use them for food, Wallace said.

“They wouldn’t survive without it,” she said.

No matter when winter descends on the farm, Wallace said it always catches her unprepared.

“There’s the paint that needs to get on the barn, repair work that needs done and things like the gutters need to be cleaned,” she said.

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